GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 579, 26 September 2021

Canada: Justin Trudeau wins but fails to secure a majority

What happened?
On 20 September, Trudeau's Liberal Party won the snap elections with a minority vote. The party won 158 seats as compared to the 157 seats in the 2019 elections. Despite the conservative party's extremely moderate pitch, the party won 119 seats as compared to the 121 seats in 2019. The bloc won 34 seats, and the NDP won 25 seats. Thus, the new government elected in Canada is again a minority government. 

On 21 September, in his victory speech, Trudeau said: "Our government is ready." He also noted: "You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to the brighter days ahead, and my friends, that's exactly what we are ready to do." In his short speech, he stated that the moment Canada faces demands real and important change and that the voters have given his government clear direction. 

On 21 September, Erin O'Toole, the opposition leader spoke to his supporters on the night of the elections where the Liberals were projected to lead a minority government. He said: "I will never stop serving this great country". He emphasized that Canadian voters did not give Trudeau the majority he desired and that "A few days ago Mr. Trudeau was saying he would hold another election in 18 months if he didn't get what he wants". He called Trudeau's moves a "power grab" and insisted that Canada must heal divides and not risk the nation for selfish gains. 

What's the background?
First, the snap elections. The call for the snap elections came on 15 August 2021, just halfway into Trudeau's term. The next round of elections was scheduled for 16 October 2021; however, the Trudeau government insisted that the Parliament was slipping into "dysfunctionalism" along with "obstruction and toxicity" levels, which was of real concern. 

Second, the electoral debate. Both parties indulged in aggressive campaigning. Trudeau focused on the management of the pandemic by his government and vaccine passports. He attacked the Opposition for bolstering anti-vaxxers as O'Toole had previously opposed mandatory vaccination. He mentioned his campaign is: "at a crossroads, at a moment where we have to make a really important choice". The Opposition referred to Trudeau's call for snap elections "selfish" amidst the fourth wave of the pandemic. O'Toole said: "Now is the time for Canadians to make a choice. We can choose to settle for second-best - for a party that hardly tries and barely delivers. Or, we can choose to believe in a brighter, better, more united future." 

What does this mean?
First, the failure of Trudeau to garner majority. The motive of the snap elections was to generate a majority government. Polls in August reflected a slight rise in the popularity of the Liberal Party. Relying on the conventional wisdom of Canadian voters preferring a majority rule by the incumbent rather than a prolonged minority rule, the snap elections were expected to generate a clear majority. This was not achieved.
Second, the no-change Parliament. Trudeau will have to address the same issues of climate change, opioid abuse, debt and deficit planning in an almost similar parliamentary set-up. The electoral debates revealed the dissatisfaction of the Opposition; this may lead to a slightly more unstable parliament for Trudeau to rejoin. Moreover, the polls revealed that the opposition seats fell by two, indicating that a moderate pitch for conservatives was ineffective. 

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